In part one of this series it was explained why a rapprochement between India and China might be the final nail in the coffin for Washington’s plans for global conquest and global government.
And doesn’t the media of Empire know it? Time Magazine headlines Modi’s trip to China telling its readers; “Why China and India Just Can’t Get Along”.
And the BBC assures its readers that; “China and India remain fierce rivals….. the two nations are vying for regional influence which could lead to a fresh round of tensions.”
Then after admitting that Indian PM Narendra Modi and China’s Premier Li Keqiang are now going to begin looking for solutions to the two countries long term border disputes, the BBC still goes on to say that although the talks have not yet begun; “A solution for a decades-long border dispute is nowhere in sight.”
Modi has been frank, in stating that there are only three real obstacles to India and China being able to enjoy cooperative and good neighborly relations. His words were a positive for peace and reconciliation, because they open up, as a public matter accessible to both the peoples of India and China, a clear negotiable path.
One of the three problems for the Indian side is very easily solved. That is that Delhi does not want its trade relationship with China to run huge structural deficits. This is simply a matter of bilateral trade policies and can easily be negotiated.
The second is the boundary issues which due to British meddling 100 years ago, has created trouble for both countries. This was made worse when Beijing attacked in 1962 and took by force territory it believed to be Chinese. While this is a huge issue on the Indian street, it is not as important from the standpoint of Indian foreign policy, which is much more focused on trade and development.
The only real sticking point on India’s demand list, is China’s support of Delhi’s true arch rival Pakistan. And that mostly boils down to the decades long battle between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. If there is a fought over peace of land where the problems seem intractable, (after Palestine- Israel) Kashmir has to be it.
So if peace in Kashmir has to be settled before India and Pakistan can make a real peace, and if only by this happening will Chinese aid to Pakistan not be seen by Delhi as a threat, then there is a lot of work still to be done.
But China wants reconciliation with India badly. That is because should Delhi become an asset of Washington, as the monster of Cold War 2 unfolds itself, India would pose a huge security risk for Beijing .
So it didn’t take more than five minutes for, according to Modi, Chinese PM Li to agree; “to explore a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable resolution” to at least the border issue.
While the Pakistan Kashmir issue will be much, much trickier, both countries now have a vested interest in rolling up their sleeves and finding a solution. China more so, since in a worst case scenario India could become a security issue.
But Modi’s vision of creating a foundation for a rapidly developing India, is for the most part China dependent. Only Delhi’s huge neighbor has the capacity to help India to modernize within any foreseeable future.
Even as the political will exists between Beijing and Delhi for a full scale rapprochement, based on the metaphor of Indian economic development, within India there are still many questions as to how much support Modi really has.
There are reasons why over more than 65 years India has developed, but only at a snails pace. The main one, being a lack of interest in developing a first world infrastructure. There are still strong vested interests within India today to keep things as they are.
And the decentralized political structure of the country, which grants minimum power to Delhi and maximum power to the states, brings into question how much political will exists within India for modernization? Unless it is widespread this simply isn’t going to happen no matter what Modi wants.
Even with just some fine words and high hopes Chinese businesses are already putting their toes into the Indian market.
But nothing serious is going to happen until India has infrastructure, which means quality roads, not filled with sporadic herds of cattle, quality and reliable electrical power, potable and reliable water availability and high speed Internet access.
Manufacturers will also need to get their products to market, which will mean good port facilities and streamlined systems of customs, warehousing and border processing.
India has little of this today and except for Modi has not shown much interest in getting any of it either. While Modi won the election last year with a big margin, his political party Bharatiya Janata Party, (BJP) has not fared so well since, being slaughtered in the Delhi elections this year. The next test for BJP will be the Bihar elections in November, where they are favored to win.
Modi and his BJP’s strident anti minority voice however, is going to create a lot of push back. As governments mature, promises are not kept and things seem the same old, same old, much of the enthusiastic support that originally put them in office wains. The opposition strengthens.
By alienating Muslims, Christians and Sikhs, (who will vote against Modi and the BJP) once Modi trips and stumbles, (which given his ambitious plans he surely will at some point) these minority votes will help to insure that he will also fall.
So nothing is written in stone and Modi’s greatest challenge will probably not be reconciling even the trickiest issue of Pakistan, but of softening his hostility towards minorities and uniting Indians in the need not just for economic modernization but greater integration with the rest of Asia.
Errata: Sikhs are not apparently anti Modi or the BJP, but Christians and Muslims are.